The relationship between Rolex prices and ISM data has become increasingly important for investors tracking economic cycles and luxury asset trends. Since early 2023, investors have witnessed an unusual divergence between the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Taiwan’s Manufacturing YoY data. Traditionally, these two indicators followed broadly similar cycles, with the ISM trailing slightly behind Taiwan due to its position further down the global supply chain. Taiwan plays a critical role as a global exporter of semiconductors and technology components, so it often serves as a bellwether for momentum.
What has changed recently is the degree of divergence. While a modest lag has always existed, the current spread between the ISM and Taiwan’s manufacturing output is far more pronounced than in previous years. Taiwan’s manufacturing recovered faster and stronger, buoyed by unrelenting global demand for electronics and chips. Meanwhile, the US has encountered more domestic frictions, most notably the impact of restrictive monetary policy. These dynamics have slowed industrial activity in the US, as tighter financial conditions weighed heavily on the economy.
This divergence is not just an academic curiosity. It has real implications for market participants and investors, especially those focused on alternative assets. Surprisingly, the movement of the ISM Manufacturing Index appears to be closely linked to something seemingly unrelated at first glance: the price trajectory of certain Rolex watches (and other collectibles too).
What the ISM Reveals About Rolex Prices
Internal research at Finslice has uncovered a compelling connection between the ISM and the rate of change in Rolex watch prices. When charting specific Rolex models against the ISM over time, we observed that Rolex prices tend to react to ISM fluctuations with a 3-5 months delay. During periods of industrial contraction, watch prices often soften or decline, while periods of ISM expansion correspond with price stabilization or appreciation.
This relationship highlights an important economic truth: luxury watch prices do not operate in isolation. They reflect broader macroeconomic conditions, particularly those that influence liquidity, consumer confidence, and discretionary spending. When the ISM declines, businesses reduce inventory, consumers become cautious, and investment appetite weakens. In this environment, demand for high-end, illiquid assets such as luxury watches also tends to slow, even among wealthier buyers.
It’s important to remember that while Rolex watches are not perfectly liquid or standardized like stocks or ETFs, they still trade in a supply-and-demand-driven secondary market. Price movements there reflect real-time shifts in perceived value and available capital. In this way, Rolex prices serve as a unique lens through which to view broader economic sentiment.
The Current Gap Between Taiwan, ISM and Rolex prices
Taiwan’s manufacturing sector has outperformed the US in recent quarters, primarily due to its exposure to global demand for advanced components. The semiconductor cycle has entered a new growth phase, lifting Taiwanese output even as other economies slow. By contrast, the US industrial economy has been more sensitive to interest rate hikes and cautious corporate spending.
This divergence has widened far beyond historical norms. In past cycles, the ISM would eventually close the gap with Taiwan’s data as downstream demand caught up with upstream signals. While the current economic climate presents new challenges, the historical tendency for these indicators to converge still offers insight. It’s higly likely to expect that the ISM will begin to recover if monetary policy loosens or global demand begins to stabilize.
For watch investors and collectors, this macro picture offers an important clue. If Rolex prices are trailing the ISM, and the ISM itself is trailing Taiwan’s manufacturing cycle, then a rebound in industrial activity could very well lead to a recovery in Rolex pricing. The domino effect could be: global manufacturing lifts Taiwan output, which lifts the ISM, which in turn supports luxury asset prices.
Rolex as a Sentiment Barometer
What makes Rolex watches unique in this analysis is their dual identity. They are both consumer products and investment assets. This places them in a narrow asset class where buyer behavior is influenced by income expectations, macro conditions, and cultural prestige. As a result, they can act as sentiment barometers, reflecting both confidence in economic growth and the availability of capital among affluent consumers.
Finslice has long recognized this dynamic, and it’s one of the reasons why Rolex models will be among the curated luxury assets offered on our platform. Investors seeking to diversify into real, tangible assets can use Rolex prices not only as a store of value but also as a market indicator. When the ISM rebounds, the likelihood of a synchronized recovery in Rolex pricing becomes much higher.
This perspective builds on themes we explored in our earlier blog post, Do Luxury Watch Investments Make Sense?, where we examined how scarcity, craftsmanship, and brand prestige contribute to value preservation. The new layer added here is the macroeconomic sensitivity of luxury goods, and how closely they track business cycles — even in countries with very different economic structures.
What This Means for Investors
For investors active in real assets or considering entry into the luxury space, tracking the ISM is more than just following economic data. It can be used as an early indicator for watch price trends. The chart created by Finslice shows how these relationships unfold over time and how predictive they can be.
While no indicator is infallible, the pattern is compelling enough to warrant attention. If the ISM begins to catch up with Taiwan’s data as it has in previous cycles, we may see renewed momentum in the Rolex secondary market. For buyers waiting on the sidelines, this could be a signal to re-engage before prices adjust upward.
Conclusion
The Rolex-ISM correlation is more than a curiosity. It allows investors to bridge the gap between macro trends and micro asset decisions. In a time when markets are volatile and traditional signals are mixed, using alternative data points like this can offer meaningful insight.
Finslice will continue to publish research that combines economic data with real asset performance, helping users make informed investment decisions across asset classes.
